* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 80 81 83 80 79 78 74 65 54 44 35 V (KT) LAND 70 77 80 81 83 80 79 78 74 65 54 44 35 V (KT) LGE mod 70 79 85 86 85 78 71 69 71 72 68 61 54 SHEAR (KT) 7 15 21 15 17 25 15 4 37 42 42 31 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 4 12 5 0 0 -8 -5 -5 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 293 277 297 284 249 235 179 15 17 15 28 23 340 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.5 28.8 28.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 127 124 121 124 128 136 146 150 146 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 125 120 117 115 117 121 127 134 134 128 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.5 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 7 700-500 MB RH 55 56 54 56 60 53 51 44 46 47 49 58 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 20 23 23 23 19 20 19 18 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 89 85 82 89 95 88 88 66 32 2 -23 -41 -60 200 MB DIV 31 30 69 78 84 53 29 -38 -16 -21 -44 -32 -34 LAND (KM) 1260 1351 1443 1546 1642 1842 2111 2433 2346 2112 1994 1823 1532 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.6 20.3 22.1 23.6 24.8 26.4 28.2 30.4 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.7 32.5 34.7 37.4 40.6 44.1 47.1 49.4 50.7 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 17 16 15 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 7 6 7 11 16 20 31 32 14 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -6. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 11. 13. 10. 9. 8. 4. -5. -16. -26. -35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/14/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 9( 19) 7( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)