* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 48 58 70 79 85 89 88 87 85 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 48 37 37 47 53 57 55 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 47 38 36 46 57 69 79 48 33 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 6 9 6 7 1 11 8 6 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 1 -5 -4 2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 58 67 98 66 34 90 25 303 309 287 288 219 253 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 166 166 161 154 155 160 163 159 156 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 159 161 160 153 144 143 146 147 143 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 9 11 9 11 9 12 10 13 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 67 66 67 69 72 74 71 70 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 9 12 12 14 13 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 63 58 58 48 33 30 30 32 61 63 65 200 MB DIV -3 15 24 11 21 30 26 63 13 55 27 47 33 LAND (KM) 284 252 272 213 91 -130 33 243 360 245 51 -173 -404 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 83.3 84.4 85.5 86.6 88.7 90.6 92.4 93.9 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 124 116 138 151 106 0 5 56 65 62 31 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 18. 28. 40. 49. 55. 59. 58. 57. 55. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 127.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/14/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/14/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)