* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 80 81 78 77 75 74 67 60 51 42 37 V (KT) LAND 75 79 80 81 78 77 75 74 67 60 51 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 82 81 78 72 68 68 70 69 64 57 50 SHEAR (KT) 12 21 17 17 19 19 4 22 38 34 28 27 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 7 13 10 0 -1 -2 -7 0 9 2 10 SHEAR DIR 266 293 295 244 231 198 254 20 18 28 19 9 307 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.5 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 127 123 122 123 127 132 139 147 150 138 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 120 116 115 118 121 123 128 134 133 119 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -49.6 -49.6 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 53 58 60 56 57 48 48 45 54 54 60 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 21 24 21 25 22 22 21 22 20 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 93 99 91 87 70 39 11 -11 -45 -70 -81 200 MB DIV 25 59 102 80 50 45 -25 -22 -6 1 -17 -31 -9 LAND (KM) 1338 1433 1529 1628 1700 1949 2312 2374 2205 2047 1968 1716 1507 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.3 21.1 22.9 24.1 25.0 26.6 29.2 31.4 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 29.9 30.7 31.5 32.4 33.2 35.8 39.4 42.6 45.6 47.9 49.6 50.4 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 13 17 17 15 14 14 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 8 7 7 9 14 22 24 35 26 16 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -7. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 3. 2. 0. -1. -8. -15. -24. -33. -38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/14/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 6( 17) 6( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)