* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 53 58 69 80 88 94 93 90 89 86 V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 53 42 32 47 55 61 50 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 46 53 44 32 45 57 70 67 40 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 7 9 4 7 7 4 12 8 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 -3 0 0 3 12 10 SHEAR DIR 81 96 48 43 67 348 2 300 289 350 55 167 177 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 165 158 156 154 158 162 158 156 153 152 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 162 158 151 147 144 147 149 144 143 140 140 136 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 9 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 70 73 72 77 79 78 77 77 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 13 14 15 16 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 66 62 54 57 39 27 31 45 68 85 104 91 200 MB DIV 24 51 39 27 30 34 45 22 56 34 62 57 7 LAND (KM) 263 284 171 38 -93 -9 219 292 128 -32 -246 -313 -98 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.4 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.8 85.9 87.1 88.3 90.3 92.4 94.4 96.3 98.2 100.3 102.5 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 119 151 152 77 0 2 61 58 59 58 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -1. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 18. 23. 34. 45. 53. 59. 58. 55. 54. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/14/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/14/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)