* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL812010 09/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 125 125 127 127 128 123 120 113 106 97 88 V (KT) LAND 125 126 125 125 127 127 128 123 120 113 106 97 88 V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 125 124 122 120 118 116 112 104 97 90 84 SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 13 7 8 9 8 11 11 14 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -7 -3 -2 0 -4 -2 0 -2 3 6 2 8 SHEAR DIR 115 154 124 129 98 140 173 208 207 171 189 218 182 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 151 151 153 151 153 150 143 144 142 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 140 139 140 138 139 135 127 126 122 116 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -49.7 -49.1 -48.8 -48.4 -48.2 -47.0 -47.8 -47.0 -46.7 -45.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 52 53 52 50 50 54 54 59 52 54 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 41 35 40 42 42 46 42 45 47 47 46 46 850 MB ENV VOR 75 89 88 98 111 124 165 145 170 141 155 158 167 200 MB DIV 35 72 65 115 164 30 124 78 40 17 110 69 85 LAND (KM) 1251 1235 1226 1156 1088 970 892 860 885 1013 1193 1080 981 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.5 27.3 29.3 31.3 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.4 54.1 54.9 55.6 57.1 58.6 60.2 61.9 63.4 64.6 65.4 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 67 70 73 63 61 57 42 25 21 19 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -18. -29. -38. -47. -52. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -19. -22. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. -2. -5. -12. -19. -28. -37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL812010 TEST 09/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL812010 TEST 09/14/10 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL812010 TEST 09/14/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 38( 62) 41( 77) 41( 87) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 90 89( 99) 79(100) 89(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)