* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 133 132 130 128 131 125 118 109 102 93 84 V (KT) LAND 135 135 133 132 130 128 131 125 118 109 102 93 84 V (KT) LGE mod 135 137 135 132 130 126 123 120 115 106 97 91 84 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 4 6 7 1 11 11 10 19 17 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -6 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -1 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 135 112 87 97 227 2 168 209 191 200 177 186 191 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 153 153 153 153 154 149 144 144 143 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 138 140 141 140 140 139 133 126 125 124 117 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -49.9 -49.6 -49.6 -49.2 -48.6 -47.9 -47.4 -47.6 -46.8 -46.2 -45.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 52 52 54 53 54 54 57 50 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 35 39 43 42 41 46 44 45 44 47 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 85 85 100 109 119 145 161 160 163 165 160 174 163 200 MB DIV 39 53 35 50 31 93 66 17 8 66 55 83 80 LAND (KM) 1207 1201 1156 1092 1032 902 837 837 885 1031 1193 1095 947 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.5 25.9 27.6 29.3 31.5 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.2 54.8 55.5 56.2 57.9 59.4 61.1 62.8 64.0 64.6 65.1 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 75 70 71 75 73 66 57 57 40 23 21 18 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -23. -36. -47. -57. -63. -66. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -23. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -4. -10. -17. -26. -33. -42. -51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/15/10 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/15/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 46( 72) 43( 84) 43( 91) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 96 95(100) 95(100) 98(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)