* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 95 93 90 86 85 83 75 64 58 45 40 V (KT) LAND 90 93 95 93 90 86 85 83 75 64 58 45 40 V (KT) LGE mod 90 95 96 93 88 82 79 80 82 80 72 63 54 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 18 20 17 7 21 32 32 31 25 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 8 4 -3 -6 0 -3 4 3 8 12 SHEAR DIR 289 310 265 216 214 204 8 18 27 29 359 354 346 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 127 123 122 126 130 135 143 147 148 136 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 121 117 116 120 124 127 132 134 130 114 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.2 -51.5 -50.0 -50.1 -48.7 -48.8 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 60 63 57 57 58 52 50 51 53 60 63 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 24 24 24 24 23 23 22 20 22 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 76 85 94 96 85 85 67 36 13 -17 -29 -52 -54 200 MB DIV 40 73 92 70 75 -5 -18 0 2 -43 -18 -31 5 LAND (KM) 1401 1485 1571 1686 1778 2083 2336 2254 2037 1917 1899 1687 1560 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.6 21.3 22.6 23.6 24.9 26.9 29.7 31.6 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.2 31.9 33.0 34.0 37.1 40.7 44.1 47.3 49.5 50.8 51.0 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 15 17 17 16 15 14 12 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 8 8 12 17 22 32 36 20 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -1. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 3. 0. -4. -5. -7. -15. -26. -32. -45. -50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/15/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 17( 27) 12( 36) 10( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)