* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 59 65 76 86 95 98 97 94 92 89 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 44 37 42 52 61 65 44 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 52 46 37 41 52 66 81 56 36 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 7 10 3 5 4 4 5 13 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 1 0 0 -1 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 96 48 43 70 133 30 43 16 3 38 71 114 113 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 159 155 155 157 160 157 156 155 151 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 157 150 146 147 148 147 142 141 142 139 131 127 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.3 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -50.0 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 11 11 8 11 7 12 8 12 7 9 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 72 72 72 76 76 78 79 80 84 86 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 11 12 13 15 17 13 9 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 63 56 58 57 24 38 48 58 89 98 114 103 200 MB DIV 51 40 27 31 36 35 52 33 75 42 74 65 58 LAND (KM) 280 160 41 -69 -147 115 297 188 52 -83 -296 -308 -240 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.9 86.0 87.1 88.1 89.1 91.5 93.6 95.3 96.7 98.4 100.6 102.1 102.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 11 9 7 7 9 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 155 150 76 91 33 3 55 68 34 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. -2. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 25. 36. 46. 55. 59. 57. 54. 52. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 101.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/15/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)