* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/15/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 135 134 134 131 130 124 115 107 98 91 82 V (KT) LAND 135 135 135 134 134 131 130 124 115 107 98 91 82 V (KT) LGE mod 135 135 133 130 128 124 119 117 111 104 96 90 80 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 6 6 4 5 9 6 20 22 27 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 -3 3 3 -1 0 1 1 2 4 7 SHEAR DIR 76 138 129 205 197 124 251 165 213 169 189 189 188 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 153 153 153 155 154 147 145 144 142 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 140 141 141 140 141 139 131 127 126 122 115 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -48.5 -48.3 -46.8 -47.5 -46.7 -46.7 -45.9 -45.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 59 55 55 51 49 55 50 55 52 54 50 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 42 40 43 45 41 47 46 45 46 45 45 48 850 MB ENV VOR 82 94 104 115 116 157 152 179 152 175 158 168 162 200 MB DIV 36 22 5 10 55 130 -7 65 -3 77 70 97 99 LAND (KM) 1200 1160 1099 1032 971 852 804 808 893 1054 1208 1064 906 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.6 21.1 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.2 27.9 29.9 32.2 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.8 55.4 56.2 56.9 58.6 60.1 61.9 63.5 64.6 64.8 65.1 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 71 70 76 75 66 65 56 55 35 17 23 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -23. -36. -47. -57. -63. -66. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. -1. -1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -20. -24. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -11. -20. -28. -37. -44. -53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/15/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/15/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/15/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 48( 73) 48( 86) 45( 92) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 93 94(100) 55(100) 85(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)