* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/15/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 110 103 98 92 87 80 68 55 46 40 34 V (KT) LAND 110 114 110 103 98 92 87 80 68 55 46 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 110 115 112 104 98 89 86 85 83 76 67 59 53 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 18 21 17 4 18 32 38 29 25 11 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 6 5 5 0 -1 -3 -1 7 9 12 6 SHEAR DIR 299 278 226 234 204 275 17 7 26 22 25 355 327 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.7 27.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 124 123 123 129 133 139 145 150 147 132 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 118 117 118 124 126 129 133 135 128 113 104 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -50.4 -49.3 -49.1 -48.2 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 62 55 56 58 53 51 53 56 60 59 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 24 23 25 23 23 21 22 19 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 92 102 101 96 95 84 49 12 -11 -21 -43 -37 -36 200 MB DIV 60 86 73 84 54 -31 25 17 -26 -7 -53 -7 -21 LAND (KM) 1504 1605 1708 1826 1949 2288 2253 2179 1958 1875 1860 1639 1472 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.0 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.6 30.0 32.0 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.3 33.1 34.4 35.7 39.1 42.5 45.6 48.4 50.4 51.5 51.5 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 15 16 17 17 15 14 13 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 10 16 21 28 40 35 18 14 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. -29. -35. -41. -43. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -11. -11. -13. -11. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 0. -7. -12. -18. -23. -30. -42. -55. -64. -70. -76. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/15/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/15/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 21( 60) 13( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)