* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/15/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 73 79 88 95 100 101 99 96 92 88 V (KT) LAND 55 62 49 39 40 48 55 60 51 35 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 65 53 41 35 51 64 78 74 42 31 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 9 3 8 5 13 11 12 13 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 0 -1 1 -2 -4 -3 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 60 54 62 76 51 43 8 21 23 47 52 68 121 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 159 157 155 156 156 156 155 153 149 144 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 154 151 149 146 144 142 143 142 141 137 128 125 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 11 10 9 8 9 10 10 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 72 74 74 75 76 77 77 82 83 86 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 9 7 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 65 61 48 40 44 48 61 78 97 94 96 200 MB DIV 32 25 36 39 28 18 24 37 39 86 42 65 58 LAND (KM) 147 27 -80 -117 3 189 234 115 -35 -202 -315 -220 -171 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.0 20.8 20.6 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.3 88.4 89.5 90.6 92.6 94.2 95.8 97.6 99.5 101.5 103.0 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 148 96 72 24 1 56 56 61 63 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 24. 33. 40. 45. 46. 44. 41. 37. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/15/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)