* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 115 119 120 126 122 118 112 105 99 94 82 V (KT) LAND 115 112 115 119 120 126 122 118 112 105 99 94 82 V (KT) LGE mod 115 110 108 108 109 112 113 111 105 99 93 87 78 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 6 5 5 12 21 19 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 3 3 3 3 2 -2 0 1 10 7 SHEAR DIR 122 190 185 176 138 216 268 179 191 188 200 205 195 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 152 152 152 153 155 153 147 144 144 140 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 139 138 139 140 141 138 130 126 125 120 113 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.1 -49.3 -48.1 -47.6 -47.5 -46.9 -46.4 -44.9 -45.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 49 51 51 49 51 57 55 55 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 41 45 46 42 48 47 49 49 45 46 49 49 850 MB ENV VOR 91 102 118 119 137 158 167 170 166 172 176 168 206 200 MB DIV 22 -11 9 69 92 39 25 12 24 63 96 87 70 LAND (KM) 1175 1103 1035 980 929 822 754 792 922 1101 1170 1091 946 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 22.2 23.4 24.8 26.5 28.3 30.4 32.6 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.6 55.4 56.1 56.8 57.4 59.0 60.9 62.4 63.6 64.4 64.9 64.6 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 69 76 77 68 67 63 62 53 30 19 22 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -21. -30. -37. -42. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -25. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. 0. 4. 5. 11. 7. 3. -3. -10. -16. -21. -33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/15/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/15/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 33( 68) 40( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 67 47( 83) 74( 95) 72( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)