* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 109 103 98 94 86 81 69 59 50 41 33 V (KT) LAND 115 115 109 103 98 94 86 81 69 59 50 41 33 V (KT) LGE mod 115 116 110 103 98 91 89 89 85 77 67 59 52 SHEAR (KT) 9 18 21 17 17 4 22 31 28 24 22 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 4 -3 -1 2 0 4 6 7 6 11 SHEAR DIR 262 225 205 200 215 55 18 15 28 2 358 329 317 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 123 125 127 129 134 143 146 148 142 131 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 118 121 122 122 125 132 131 129 122 112 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.1 -51.2 -49.8 -49.9 -48.9 -49.1 -48.2 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 61 54 56 57 53 49 49 52 53 58 62 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 24 27 27 24 22 25 22 21 21 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 98 103 97 88 86 69 31 11 -13 -33 -60 -77 -75 200 MB DIV 89 79 92 32 -7 -24 14 6 -12 -15 -36 -23 -18 LAND (KM) 1600 1722 1814 1967 2125 2342 2278 2095 1962 1967 1793 1568 1347 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.8 23.8 25.2 27.1 29.0 30.7 32.8 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.2 33.3 34.3 35.9 37.5 40.9 44.0 46.8 49.1 50.3 50.4 49.9 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 18 18 17 15 14 12 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 11 12 17 22 32 34 23 21 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -33. -40. -46. -50. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -10. -13. -10. -9. -10. -10. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -6. -12. -17. -21. -29. -34. -46. -56. -65. -74. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/15/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 28( 50) 21( 61) 16( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)