* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 74 80 89 98 103 107 104 100 95 90 V (KT) LAND 55 45 37 40 46 55 64 69 49 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 45 37 38 44 56 71 87 61 37 30 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 12 10 5 6 5 5 7 10 11 13 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 44 63 75 73 44 98 35 65 36 44 73 112 95 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 157 155 157 158 157 155 153 152 149 146 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 151 149 147 147 146 142 139 138 138 134 129 124 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.6 -50.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 8 11 7 12 7 11 8 10 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 72 71 73 74 74 81 78 82 87 87 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 63 65 57 31 47 52 46 76 67 97 101 99 200 MB DIV 26 26 47 24 9 34 27 50 53 48 37 73 55 LAND (KM) -1 -86 -97 23 144 265 170 38 -79 -214 -325 -260 -232 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.0 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.7 89.7 90.8 91.9 93.9 95.5 96.9 98.1 99.5 101.1 102.3 102.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 7 7 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 24 3 37 55 67 14 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 25. 34. 43. 48. 52. 49. 45. 40. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/15/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)