* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/15/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 101 97 94 90 78 67 58 48 40 31 24 V (KT) LAND 110 105 101 97 94 90 78 67 58 48 40 31 24 V (KT) LGE mod 110 105 100 95 92 87 86 84 78 69 59 51 45 SHEAR (KT) 23 17 18 12 3 19 32 40 31 27 22 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 2 3 -1 -5 -5 2 7 8 6 6 SHEAR DIR 206 182 198 219 211 12 18 18 23 24 346 334 337 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 28.0 28.6 28.8 28.6 27.7 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 126 128 131 138 146 149 146 133 122 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 118 121 123 123 128 132 131 126 113 103 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -50.3 -49.0 -49.0 -48.8 -48.6 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 52 51 49 48 55 54 59 66 64 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 26 29 28 26 26 25 24 23 20 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 99 91 78 80 72 48 21 0 -19 -45 -56 -76 -29 200 MB DIV 69 72 0 -1 -11 -2 -13 -13 43 -19 -37 -33 -4 LAND (KM) 1693 1811 1934 2104 2276 2335 2224 2056 1997 1831 1611 1454 1344 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.6 28.4 30.4 32.5 34.2 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.3 35.6 37.3 39.0 42.4 45.4 47.8 49.5 50.0 49.3 48.0 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 17 18 18 16 14 13 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 12 14 21 23 33 27 24 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -20. -28. -35. -41. -45. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -10. -10. -14. -16. -15. -12. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -32. -43. -52. -62. -70. -79. -86. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/15/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/15/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 23( 45) 16( 54) 12( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)