* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/15/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 53 57 67 75 81 85 87 88 90 90 V (KT) LAND 45 37 38 42 46 56 64 70 42 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 33 39 43 52 64 76 45 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 4 5 6 2 8 5 11 12 14 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -3 2 -1 -3 0 0 1 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 73 91 69 54 47 318 7 356 56 67 95 99 41 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 155 157 158 157 155 155 154 150 147 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 146 148 147 143 139 140 139 136 132 126 125 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 8 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 73 71 74 78 77 75 80 85 86 85 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 15 12 10 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 65 54 35 38 45 48 62 74 94 97 104 93 200 MB DIV 28 30 23 2 10 22 43 41 59 46 79 57 67 LAND (KM) -84 -97 9 127 224 240 146 5 -112 -269 -312 -211 -191 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.2 20.8 20.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.8 90.7 91.8 92.8 94.6 95.8 97.2 98.8 100.3 101.7 102.8 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 7 6 7 7 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 22 2 26 60 61 54 2 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 22. 30. 36. 40. 42. 43. 45. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/15/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/15/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)