* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 117 118 120 122 120 112 104 101 93 87 79 V (KT) LAND 115 116 117 118 120 122 120 112 104 101 93 87 79 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 113 112 110 109 108 107 103 98 91 83 74 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 6 7 5 10 9 21 14 23 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 4 2 5 0 -1 0 0 0 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 255 271 284 248 194 198 135 161 146 167 186 197 214 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 153 155 153 150 147 146 142 133 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 141 139 140 141 138 134 131 129 124 116 108 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.0 -49.5 -49.7 -48.7 -48.2 -47.7 -47.6 -47.1 -46.2 -46.5 -46.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 55 54 50 53 53 52 53 51 54 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 40 41 39 42 44 46 43 43 46 45 46 48 850 MB ENV VOR 106 109 131 149 166 170 171 162 166 162 154 168 196 200 MB DIV 5 36 57 101 67 47 7 -2 30 95 61 107 77 LAND (KM) 1025 955 889 831 780 706 697 795 977 1196 1090 1021 869 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.7 23.8 25.3 27.2 29.5 32.0 34.5 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.1 56.9 57.6 58.4 59.1 60.8 62.4 63.6 64.6 65.0 64.9 63.1 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 84 74 75 77 68 62 67 51 18 23 20 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -30. -37. -42. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 7. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -20. -24. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. -3. -11. -14. -22. -28. -36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/16/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 33( 69) 34( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 85 87( 98) 88(100) 90(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)