* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 90 88 86 79 71 61 55 47 37 27 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 94 90 88 86 79 71 61 55 47 37 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 93 89 85 83 79 78 76 71 63 53 45 38 SHEAR (KT) 16 20 18 11 10 21 33 29 25 28 40 45 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 4 6 4 0 -5 6 7 9 1 6 8 SHEAR DIR 191 189 240 260 312 351 345 346 338 327 317 313 331 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.7 28.5 28.7 28.3 27.3 26.4 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 125 126 128 135 146 148 141 128 118 112 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 120 122 122 126 133 131 122 109 99 95 92 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -50.0 -49.3 -49.7 -49.3 -49.0 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 56 60 56 54 56 53 55 64 67 70 64 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 27 26 25 23 24 22 23 22 24 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 74 63 65 55 46 19 -3 -30 -41 -66 -62 -59 -92 200 MB DIV 70 24 15 -9 -27 -15 1 13 47 -14 -18 -50 -54 LAND (KM) 1756 1895 2040 2226 2413 2406 2193 2006 1748 1534 1387 1349 1404 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.6 25.2 27.0 29.0 31.2 33.2 34.9 35.9 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.3 36.7 38.6 40.4 43.6 46.5 48.6 49.6 49.3 47.7 45.7 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 20 18 16 15 12 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 11 15 22 35 25 16 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -33. -37. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -13. -12. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -14. -21. -29. -39. -45. -53. -63. -73. -85. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/16/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 12( 31) 10( 38) 7( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)