* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 41 52 61 68 72 77 81 83 84 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 44 55 64 55 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 35 37 44 54 52 35 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 10 2 5 6 2 9 7 12 18 12 14 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 2 3 -4 -5 1 -4 -2 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 86 79 54 39 86 354 343 46 92 109 122 92 75 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 156 156 158 157 155 156 152 150 147 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 146 145 145 141 139 141 137 136 132 125 124 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 10 11 7 12 8 11 7 10 6 10 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 73 76 74 75 77 78 82 86 86 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 15 14 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 47 48 52 48 56 87 76 96 100 111 99 200 MB DIV 33 46 31 42 39 20 48 56 62 56 63 46 61 LAND (KM) -61 39 137 202 267 192 89 -42 -181 -329 -276 -171 -145 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.2 20.7 20.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 90.1 91.0 91.9 92.8 93.7 95.2 96.4 97.8 99.5 100.9 102.2 103.2 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 7 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 4 33 56 54 59 49 59 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 6. 17. 26. 33. 37. 42. 46. 48. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/16/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)