* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/16/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 124 123 120 122 118 111 101 97 90 81 72 V (KT) LAND 125 125 124 123 120 122 118 111 101 97 90 81 72 V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 124 120 117 113 110 105 98 92 86 78 69 SHEAR (KT) 11 16 7 9 12 2 12 17 16 13 26 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 1 3 4 7 4 3 2 8 11 7 5 SHEAR DIR 270 254 255 235 252 223 177 166 170 186 201 198 229 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 153 153 155 155 152 147 145 144 141 130 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 140 139 141 142 138 129 127 125 123 115 103 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -49.8 -50.2 -50.0 -48.5 -48.4 -47.5 -47.6 -46.4 -45.8 -46.2 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 3 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 55 55 52 48 53 54 55 56 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 39 40 41 42 41 45 46 46 44 46 48 47 46 850 MB ENV VOR 112 125 137 153 153 174 156 180 164 170 148 159 141 200 MB DIV 34 55 96 35 23 82 25 70 90 113 85 109 89 LAND (KM) 990 920 857 803 757 702 761 907 1082 1176 1126 983 867 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.0 23.1 24.8 26.5 28.3 30.3 32.6 35.1 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 57.3 58.1 58.9 59.6 61.3 63.1 64.2 64.9 64.9 64.2 61.9 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 9 10 11 9 10 11 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 76 71 76 68 65 64 55 27 17 25 22 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -28. -39. -48. -53. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -6. -7. -4. -2. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -3. -7. -14. -24. -28. -35. -44. -53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/16/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 36( 60) 33( 73) 34( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 58 52( 80) 75( 95) 50( 97) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)