* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/16/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 85 83 81 74 67 60 52 45 36 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 89 85 83 81 74 67 60 52 45 36 25 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 89 84 82 80 77 76 73 67 58 50 43 36 SHEAR (KT) 24 21 10 11 14 31 30 24 30 36 35 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 0 7 -5 -1 6 5 4 8 1 6 SHEAR DIR 189 214 226 316 346 336 346 331 326 305 320 321 316 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.4 28.1 28.6 28.6 27.6 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 127 128 132 140 147 146 132 119 116 112 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 122 123 124 129 132 128 112 100 98 95 92 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -49.0 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 58 53 53 54 53 56 55 62 64 65 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 26 25 25 23 24 24 23 23 24 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 57 63 57 47 36 2 -17 -38 -65 -46 -44 -40 -44 200 MB DIV 27 10 -12 3 -14 3 19 20 9 -5 -27 -87 -45 LAND (KM) 1911 2071 2231 2413 2423 2267 2135 1866 1593 1412 1355 1370 1413 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 26.0 27.9 30.2 32.6 34.4 35.4 36.1 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 37.0 38.6 40.4 42.2 45.3 47.6 49.1 49.7 48.9 47.0 44.7 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 19 18 15 13 12 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 16 19 28 26 26 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -22. -29. -33. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -13. -16. -14. -12. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -14. -21. -28. -35. -43. -50. -59. -70. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/16/10 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/16/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 10( 25) 8( 31) 5( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)