* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/16/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 61 70 75 81 87 90 91 90 87 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 61 70 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 51 55 60 72 52 34 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 1 1 3 5 5 5 6 4 3 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 2 3 -2 -3 1 0 1 2 5 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 105 86 116 34 320 15 3 94 82 141 115 307 341 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 157 158 156 154 152 151 149 146 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 146 143 144 144 138 133 133 136 133 125 123 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 76 74 73 78 79 83 85 83 83 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 12 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 34 45 51 47 49 64 69 78 68 101 108 106 200 MB DIV 34 19 43 66 46 40 46 73 72 77 51 38 48 LAND (KM) 62 167 233 269 231 56 -69 -171 -213 -352 -198 -56 -47 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.0 21.4 21.1 21.3 20.9 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.2 93.2 94.0 94.7 96.7 98.5 99.5 99.8 101.1 103.3 104.7 104.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 7 8 9 7 4 4 8 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 48 54 56 60 30 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 30. 36. 42. 45. 46. 45. 42. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/16/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)