* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/16/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 117 117 117 115 112 109 103 96 88 78 65 V (KT) LAND 120 118 117 117 117 115 112 109 103 96 88 78 65 V (KT) LGE mod 120 118 116 114 112 110 107 103 97 91 83 74 63 SHEAR (KT) 15 16 11 10 7 11 9 20 17 18 33 32 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 6 4 0 -1 4 0 12 4 12 2 SHEAR DIR 260 245 241 248 233 180 114 151 153 183 191 207 219 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 155 155 150 145 146 143 136 127 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 140 140 142 141 134 128 127 125 119 111 100 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.0 -50.4 -50.1 -49.3 -48.5 -47.6 -47.7 -47.3 -46.3 -46.4 -46.0 -46.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 5 2 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 56 57 53 53 52 51 47 53 43 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 42 43 45 45 45 42 43 50 48 48 48 48 45 850 MB ENV VOR 121 136 153 154 159 176 173 181 176 178 176 176 165 200 MB DIV 53 76 47 51 90 48 58 57 99 88 105 71 58 LAND (KM) 956 899 846 791 748 738 808 960 1126 1141 1081 912 828 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.8 25.3 27.0 28.8 31.1 33.7 36.2 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 57.6 58.3 59.2 60.0 61.7 63.2 64.3 65.0 64.8 63.4 60.6 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 11 12 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 70 73 72 65 62 64 49 22 18 20 14 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -14. -26. -35. -44. -49. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. 0. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -24. -32. -42. -55. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/16/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 32( 54) 32( 69) 31( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 17( 45) 52( 74) 59( 89) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)