* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/16/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 78 75 71 63 55 50 42 38 29 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 80 78 75 71 63 55 50 42 38 29 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 79 76 74 74 73 71 65 58 50 44 38 32 SHEAR (KT) 23 10 11 25 25 35 32 25 29 40 38 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 0 -3 4 -7 4 4 11 1 13 9 3 SHEAR DIR 201 230 290 347 356 339 334 326 319 319 327 338 339 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.1 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 129 133 138 147 148 138 125 119 116 112 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 123 126 129 133 130 119 106 100 98 93 89 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -50.5 -50.7 -49.2 -49.7 -49.2 -48.9 -48.8 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 53 55 52 49 52 57 64 68 70 64 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 24 24 23 20 19 19 20 24 25 21 14 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 47 34 7 -12 -34 -52 -63 -64 -60 -80 -89 200 MB DIV 13 8 10 -40 -41 2 17 53 25 -15 -37 -53 0 LAND (KM) 2132 2308 2414 2411 2317 2147 1966 1711 1494 1385 1424 1453 1454 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 25.5 27.4 29.3 31.5 33.5 34.8 35.2 35.7 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 39.4 41.1 42.9 44.6 47.2 49.0 49.9 49.7 48.2 45.6 43.7 42.3 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 18 17 14 12 11 9 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 16 22 22 29 26 13 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 22 CX,CY: -18/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -6. -8. -14. -17. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. -2. -5. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -14. -22. -30. -35. -43. -47. -56. -68. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/16/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/16/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 6( 15) 4( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)