* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/16/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 75 81 85 91 96 99 99 94 90 85 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 75 81 74 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 64 73 81 88 100 52 35 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 0 1 8 8 8 4 4 4 6 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 6 0 -2 -3 -1 0 1 3 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 74 93 33 2 14 343 48 101 109 113 251 271 294 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 156 157 154 153 152 149 146 143 141 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 141 143 146 141 136 139 136 129 125 123 131 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -50.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 6 11 7 10 7 10 7 11 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 79 79 77 78 84 84 85 85 85 80 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 62 62 56 61 64 76 68 101 98 112 99 97 200 MB DIV 31 47 64 53 41 70 60 68 78 76 41 65 68 LAND (KM) 111 133 163 199 189 -12 -79 -188 -303 -260 -240 -189 -311 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.6 93.0 93.8 94.6 97.1 97.9 99.1 101.1 102.3 102.8 103.4 102.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 6 8 10 8 5 7 7 4 2 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 50 45 44 45 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 26. 30. 36. 41. 44. 44. 39. 35. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/16/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 8( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 9( 9) 14( 22) 0( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)