* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/16/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 114 116 118 118 113 104 100 94 88 77 66 V (KT) LAND 115 113 114 116 118 118 113 104 100 94 88 77 66 V (KT) LGE mod 115 111 109 108 107 107 105 100 95 89 80 71 61 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 8 6 7 9 15 11 19 23 28 41 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 4 -1 0 1 6 8 14 2 9 SHEAR DIR 235 231 255 176 116 139 133 165 178 215 206 217 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.4 26.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 155 155 152 148 146 144 141 131 121 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 140 142 142 137 132 128 125 122 115 108 92 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.2 -50.0 -49.3 -48.2 -48.0 -46.9 -47.0 -46.1 -46.3 -45.8 -46.2 -44.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 53 50 45 51 52 54 51 48 38 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 43 44 44 46 48 47 44 46 45 48 46 48 850 MB ENV VOR 131 144 150 156 168 157 184 164 176 148 190 193 234 200 MB DIV 82 40 68 85 78 -25 68 58 128 96 81 51 76 LAND (KM) 904 843 789 752 732 778 890 1072 1143 1100 989 846 657 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.8 26.3 28.2 30.3 32.6 34.9 37.7 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.5 59.3 60.2 61.1 62.7 64.0 64.9 65.3 64.5 62.5 59.0 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 17 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 67 66 63 60 63 50 30 18 24 25 11 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -13. -23. -32. -40. -45. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 1. 4. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. -2. -11. -15. -21. -27. -38. -49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/16/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 32( 67) 32( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 30 45( 62) 20( 69) 12( 73) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)