* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/16/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 69 66 63 57 51 44 37 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 69 66 63 57 51 44 37 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 66 65 65 65 62 57 51 44 38 33 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 25 33 40 34 29 30 32 35 42 41 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 0 -2 -9 -2 5 1 3 15 4 11 2 SHEAR DIR 242 319 345 347 344 354 332 327 309 309 319 332 299 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.7 27.8 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 134 139 144 148 147 134 123 116 113 107 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 127 130 132 132 128 114 104 98 96 91 86 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 -49.3 -49.6 -49.0 -49.1 -48.8 -49.0 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 49 56 56 61 65 66 68 64 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 25 23 22 22 22 21 22 24 20 14 35 850 MB ENV VOR 50 42 24 2 -10 -28 -41 -69 -58 -71 -88 -128 60 200 MB DIV 0 -25 -44 -24 -9 9 62 0 21 -35 -70 -33 45 LAND (KM) 2375 2360 2361 2268 2151 2035 1861 1637 1463 1358 1339 1329 1317 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.2 28.0 30.1 32.1 33.8 35.1 36.0 37.1 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.8 43.5 45.1 46.6 48.8 50.2 50.5 49.6 48.0 45.7 43.5 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 18 17 15 13 11 10 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 22 23 34 28 24 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 23 CX,CY: -20/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 820 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -5. -10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -12. -18. -24. -31. -38. -46. -57. -70. -60. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/16/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/16/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/16/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)