* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/16/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 84 86 90 94 96 98 96 92 88 83 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 84 86 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 74 83 90 96 54 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 9 9 9 12 14 12 13 11 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 0 -2 -1 2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 27 44 21 25 12 73 108 90 72 47 16 343 355 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 153 151 146 144 141 143 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 142 141 140 140 138 132 129 124 127 124 125 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 6 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 78 78 75 76 84 83 84 84 83 82 81 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 71 64 63 70 71 92 80 79 67 72 70 200 MB DIV 29 42 25 30 63 36 69 74 67 59 47 45 34 LAND (KM) 128 150 134 78 18 -125 -287 -223 -177 -106 -133 -144 -133 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.6 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.2 95.0 95.8 96.5 98.1 99.9 101.3 102.1 102.9 102.4 101.9 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 8 8 5 4 1 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 30 26 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. 31. 27. 23. 18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/16/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/16/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 10( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 21( 24) 8( 30) 0( 30) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)