* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/17/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 111 113 112 111 110 103 97 90 80 70 58 V (KT) LAND 110 109 111 113 112 111 110 103 97 90 80 70 58 V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 106 106 106 105 101 97 91 82 72 63 51 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 10 14 14 18 24 26 31 38 55 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 0 -2 -3 3 -4 10 7 6 3 16 SHEAR DIR 222 255 192 177 158 147 145 196 191 191 206 209 206 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.7 26.9 25.3 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 155 155 150 145 146 143 135 127 113 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 141 141 134 128 128 125 119 114 102 74 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -49.8 -48.4 -48.8 -47.8 -47.5 -47.3 -46.0 -45.9 -46.6 -45.8 -46.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 50 50 49 51 54 54 57 46 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 43 44 44 42 42 50 48 48 48 46 47 50 850 MB ENV VOR 138 140 149 164 172 164 178 168 170 183 191 205 257 200 MB DIV 58 81 112 82 -9 9 42 100 84 91 82 71 60 LAND (KM) 878 833 798 776 771 843 995 1176 1082 1033 861 728 426 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.1 25.6 27.3 29.3 31.6 34.1 36.8 40.1 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 58.2 59.0 59.8 60.7 61.6 63.1 64.2 65.0 65.2 63.6 60.4 55.6 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 16 22 26 28 HEAT CONTENT 65 61 57 58 63 41 21 21 20 19 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -21. -29. -36. -41. -45. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -3. -3. -2. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. -7. -13. -20. -30. -40. -52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/17/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 30( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 91 89( 99) 85(100) 87(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)