* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/17/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 62 59 55 51 48 41 33 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 62 59 55 51 48 41 33 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 63 62 61 60 57 52 47 41 34 30 26 SHEAR (KT) 14 28 31 36 39 20 26 32 37 41 43 53 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -7 -9 14 3 4 4 12 11 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 344 348 344 355 328 318 308 315 312 313 327 295 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.3 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 139 145 147 149 143 127 119 112 106 101 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 131 135 135 133 123 108 101 95 91 86 82 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -49.2 -49.5 -48.6 -48.7 -48.6 -47.9 -46.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 4 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 52 53 47 55 55 60 62 68 70 68 61 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 22 24 21 21 22 22 22 22 19 14 50 850 MB ENV VOR 42 27 4 -4 -14 -32 -55 -76 -78 -76 -98 8 205 200 MB DIV -17 -37 -34 -17 -25 24 53 -1 20 -42 -20 28 47 LAND (KM) 2308 2307 2218 2104 2001 1942 1764 1544 1385 1262 1196 1167 1213 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.7 26.6 28.6 30.9 32.9 34.5 36.0 37.4 38.9 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.7 45.4 46.9 48.4 50.3 51.1 50.9 49.7 48.0 45.8 43.5 40.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 16 15 12 11 9 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 33 33 26 18 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -10. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -29. -37. -45. -57. -68. -47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/17/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/17/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)