* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/17/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 93 98 99 100 100 100 102 101 96 91 86 81 V (KT) LAND 85 93 98 99 74 43 32 28 27 29 23 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 96 105 109 84 45 32 28 27 30 37 49 55 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 12 13 12 17 16 17 18 15 22 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 4 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 34 16 34 39 43 93 96 75 73 61 39 27 38 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 152 152 152 150 147 144 140 142 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 138 139 139 138 135 131 125 127 127 128 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -51.3 -50.8 -51.7 -51.2 -52.1 -51.4 -52.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 6 9 11 7 10 7 10 7 11 7 11 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 78 78 85 85 87 87 87 81 79 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 74 77 81 83 86 92 102 73 76 69 75 62 200 MB DIV 52 25 51 77 52 68 85 64 74 54 67 69 45 LAND (KM) 148 119 81 22 -36 -183 -268 -157 -86 15 6 11 55 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.8 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.8 95.5 96.2 96.8 98.3 99.7 101.2 102.6 103.6 103.1 102.5 102.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 34 26 9 51 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 17. 16. 11. 6. 1. -4. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/17/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 21( 29) 0( 29) 0( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 25( 32) 0( 32) 0( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)