* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 112 113 114 114 108 103 98 91 80 73 62 V (KT) LAND 110 109 112 113 114 114 108 103 98 91 80 73 62 V (KT) LGE mod 110 108 108 108 108 106 102 98 92 83 73 62 51 SHEAR (KT) 14 8 5 10 11 18 12 26 27 35 39 51 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -2 -2 0 2 9 9 1 4 17 SHEAR DIR 244 196 180 159 140 148 156 189 215 196 217 216 196 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.3 25.8 18.4 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 155 155 154 148 145 145 141 132 118 82 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 141 142 139 132 127 127 124 118 108 78 75 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.9 -48.8 -49.1 -48.5 -47.8 -47.8 -46.6 -47.0 -46.2 -46.4 -45.3 -43.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 51 46 49 48 54 51 54 48 42 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 44 45 42 46 46 46 48 50 49 46 52 54 850 MB ENV VOR 146 154 168 172 167 187 169 182 163 177 224 262 285 200 MB DIV 102 102 75 4 -30 63 72 113 91 120 72 86 104 LAND (KM) 807 770 744 744 758 874 1043 1185 1091 924 794 472 737 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.8 24.5 26.1 27.8 30.0 32.6 35.6 38.7 42.8 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 59.1 59.9 60.7 61.6 62.5 63.8 64.6 65.0 64.6 62.1 57.2 50.7 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 10 10 12 15 22 29 34 35 HEAT CONTENT 63 60 60 65 54 33 18 25 25 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -11. -21. -29. -37. -42. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -27. -32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -2. -7. -12. -19. -30. -37. -48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/17/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 30( 65) 30( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 68 76( 92) 43( 96) 16( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)