* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 67 61 59 53 48 45 36 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 67 61 59 53 48 45 36 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 73 71 70 66 62 56 50 43 36 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 28 37 43 42 31 21 24 28 33 51 60 58 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -8 1 8 5 9 16 8 6 5 38 SHEAR DIR 348 344 355 4 358 338 326 299 297 299 306 318 352 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 27.7 26.7 26.0 25.1 23.4 22.7 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 145 146 148 149 133 121 115 107 95 91 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 135 134 135 132 114 104 98 92 82 79 74 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -49.4 -49.8 -48.9 -48.9 -48.6 -48.4 -46.7 -44.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 7 5 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 53 57 57 62 63 63 62 56 51 48 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 23 20 22 17 18 21 21 20 15 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 6 7 -2 -11 -24 -53 -71 -83 -83 -13 209 246 200 MB DIV -39 -17 -12 -21 -3 40 -14 17 -22 -52 -8 60 36 LAND (KM) 2249 2152 2006 1928 1865 1882 1667 1449 1265 1104 972 939 1020 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.4 25.1 26.1 27.1 29.5 31.7 33.7 35.6 37.6 39.7 41.6 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 46.0 47.7 49.0 50.2 51.8 52.5 51.7 49.7 47.7 45.9 43.7 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 15 14 13 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 38 37 36 23 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. -18. -22. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -5. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -16. -22. -26. -30. -39. -51. -67. -80. -86. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/17/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/17/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)