* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 103 103 102 102 103 105 103 96 90 84 81 V (KT) LAND 95 102 103 83 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 95 105 111 94 68 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 10 14 15 15 14 11 11 12 14 22 24 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 0 -3 0 1 0 -1 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 357 19 25 47 71 107 86 62 33 6 14 23 N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 152 153 150 148 143 142 142 142 142 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 138 140 141 138 135 127 124 125 124 124 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 10 8 9 8 9 8 9 10 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 79 84 82 85 86 85 79 79 77 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 80 84 83 82 97 90 84 72 77 68 N/A 200 MB DIV 24 38 74 55 57 57 82 69 64 59 40 51 N/A LAND (KM) 116 90 44 -30 -105 -270 -236 -156 -179 -201 -188 -183 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.4 19.6 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.7 19.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.4 95.9 96.7 97.5 99.2 100.5 101.8 101.8 101.8 102.3 102.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 8 8 7 6 3 1 1 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 27 15 50 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -16. -21. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. 4. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 10. 8. 1. -5. -11. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/17/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 25( 38) 0( 38) 0( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 31 21( 45) 0( 45) 0( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)