* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/17/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 99 104 107 107 103 100 93 87 80 72 58 V (KT) LAND 100 98 99 104 107 107 103 100 93 87 80 72 58 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 94 95 96 97 97 94 88 79 67 54 48 SHEAR (KT) 9 4 6 1 3 12 17 26 26 38 48 41 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 3 0 1 -3 4 6 4 -2 2 9 SHEAR DIR 220 195 188 164 14 151 184 184 204 220 250 207 186 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.6 26.3 20.2 14.1 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 150 145 145 144 135 123 87 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 140 140 135 128 127 127 122 114 82 71 70 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.0 -49.2 -48.6 -48.2 -47.7 -47.2 -47.2 -46.6 -46.9 -47.3 -46.4 -46.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 6 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 51 50 49 52 52 62 63 66 65 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 44 45 42 46 47 48 48 52 50 48 50 54 49 850 MB ENV VOR 146 164 172 159 169 168 167 172 164 176 237 256 218 200 MB DIV 81 69 10 0 25 35 63 91 125 90 132 86 130 LAND (KM) 784 767 762 778 812 962 1121 1141 1059 826 493 443 836 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.6 25.3 27.0 28.7 31.1 34.1 37.9 42.3 47.4 52.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.6 61.3 62.2 63.1 64.2 64.9 64.8 63.1 59.0 52.3 46.9 42.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 14 21 30 33 30 28 HEAT CONTENT 59 58 63 55 44 24 19 20 14 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -34. -39. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 3. 2. 3. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 4. 7. 7. 3. 0. -7. -13. -20. -28. -42. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/17/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 27( 55) 27( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 67 84( 95) 60( 98) 6( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)