* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/17/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 107 105 104 102 101 102 99 94 86 82 80 V (KT) LAND 105 108 76 56 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 105 111 81 59 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 16 13 15 13 11 13 16 21 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -4 -4 -6 -3 -1 -2 1 2 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 8 22 47 67 80 91 70 39 19 6 22 24 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 152 152 148 146 143 142 141 141 142 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 138 140 140 135 132 126 124 123 123 125 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 8 6 10 7 11 7 11 8 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 83 84 85 85 86 83 77 77 75 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 77 75 72 85 83 65 68 56 41 29 N/A 200 MB DIV 40 67 47 43 53 62 62 68 59 45 24 51 N/A LAND (KM) 66 11 -44 -116 -189 -244 -176 -111 -124 -150 -134 -158 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.2 19.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.2 96.7 97.5 98.3 99.8 100.9 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.8 101.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 8 8 6 5 2 1 0 0 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 2 49 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -17. -24. -31. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -9. -4. -2. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -6. -11. -19. -23. -25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/17/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 53 0( 53) 0( 53) 0( 53) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)