* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/17/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 98 102 102 101 100 94 87 81 77 63 46 V (KT) LAND 95 95 98 102 102 101 100 94 87 81 77 63 46 V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 91 92 93 93 93 90 84 74 61 49 43 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 1 10 15 14 20 20 38 50 80 35 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 0 0 0 1 10 10 10 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 232 219 205 138 128 161 195 218 203 225 219 174 169 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.3 25.9 18.6 13.6 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 150 148 145 144 142 132 118 81 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 135 131 127 126 125 118 108 77 71 70 200 MB T (C) -48.9 -49.4 -49.2 -48.2 -47.3 -47.6 -46.1 -46.1 -45.9 -46.0 -43.1 -41.1 -42.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 8 5 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 56 53 50 53 52 49 54 54 51 38 31 41 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 45 46 47 44 46 48 49 49 51 61 58 48 850 MB ENV VOR 163 167 167 176 192 180 197 175 200 258 353 450 311 200 MB DIV 69 21 25 50 76 34 103 69 95 88 78 4 85 LAND (KM) 768 772 787 826 879 1048 1183 1113 924 719 421 456 895 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.5 26.2 27.9 29.9 32.5 35.6 39.2 43.0 48.1 53.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.5 62.3 63.2 64.0 64.8 65.1 64.4 62.1 57.9 51.9 46.7 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 12 16 21 27 30 31 31 HEAT CONTENT 59 63 52 43 32 18 24 23 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -13. -19. -25. -31. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -8. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -26. -33. -39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 12. 9. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 22. 24. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 7. 7. 6. 5. -1. -8. -14. -18. -32. -49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/17/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/17/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 24( 50) 23( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 38 30( 57) 6( 59) 1( 60) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)