* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/17/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 56 52 49 46 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 56 52 49 46 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 60 58 57 54 49 43 37 32 28 26 26 SHEAR (KT) 36 37 35 30 29 24 33 38 44 49 29 39 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -10 -4 4 -1 10 4 11 11 10 0 13 -4 SHEAR DIR 347 353 355 353 322 321 296 305 310 321 267 217 193 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 27.6 26.6 25.9 25.3 24.2 23.0 20.9 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 149 150 150 132 120 113 108 101 93 83 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 137 137 133 114 102 96 92 87 81 74 71 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -49.7 -50.2 -49.4 -49.3 -48.7 -48.3 -46.3 -43.8 -46.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 52 57 57 60 64 69 66 61 56 48 47 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 19 19 17 17 19 20 20 12 61 58 48 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -12 -25 -50 -41 -87 -91 -98 -98 20 191 74 99 200 MB DIV -12 -13 -13 16 43 59 37 -22 -21 40 42 37 29 LAND (KM) 2024 1938 1869 1871 1889 1625 1399 1247 1166 1084 1025 1091 1252 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.9 27.0 28.3 29.6 32.1 34.2 35.8 37.1 38.9 41.2 43.1 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.4 48.8 50.1 51.0 51.8 52.0 51.1 49.5 47.4 45.1 42.8 40.2 37.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 12 10 10 12 14 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 34 40 37 30 23 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -17. -19. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -16. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -9. 27. 24. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -24. -32. -42. -56. -24. -33. -48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/17/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/17/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/17/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)