* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/17/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 87 87 88 88 90 89 89 88 84 81 78 V (KT) LAND 90 66 49 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 90 66 48 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 14 13 20 14 21 18 22 25 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 0 -2 1 1 3 -4 1 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 8 43 67 81 93 74 63 47 32 29 38 31 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 150 147 145 140 141 140 140 143 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 139 139 136 133 124 125 122 122 126 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 10 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 79 83 85 82 84 83 86 82 76 77 76 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 89 87 75 70 77 71 67 61 67 49 57 N/A 200 MB DIV 63 67 57 51 46 55 60 52 67 39 34 34 N/A LAND (KM) -28 -91 -154 -217 -249 -159 -100 -53 -70 -111 -105 -133 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.0 97.6 98.3 99.0 100.6 102.0 103.2 102.9 102.5 102.6 102.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 2 2 1 1 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -9. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/17/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/17/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)