* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/18/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 100 102 104 105 102 93 88 79 69 54 37 V (KT) LAND 95 97 100 102 104 105 102 93 88 79 69 54 37 V (KT) LGE mod 95 95 95 96 96 95 93 88 80 70 55 47 43 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 10 15 15 20 31 37 48 54 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 2 1 -1 9 6 3 5 7 0 8 SHEAR DIR 207 185 166 171 156 202 218 196 207 219 196 157 164 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.7 26.7 23.7 15.6 14.2 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 147 147 144 143 136 126 102 75 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 132 130 129 126 125 121 113 93 72 69 67 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.2 -48.5 -47.5 -48.0 -47.4 -46.6 -46.3 -46.6 -46.1 -45.3 -45.7 -47.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 54 53 48 52 53 58 49 41 40 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 43 46 43 46 48 50 47 50 50 54 46 37 850 MB ENV VOR 159 158 164 177 169 170 167 170 192 241 314 284 210 200 MB DIV 27 32 75 103 49 86 89 107 94 107 79 60 78 LAND (KM) 795 817 853 906 967 1160 1122 1043 822 600 290 584 881 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.4 27.1 29.1 31.3 34.1 37.4 41.4 45.9 50.2 54.0 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.3 63.1 63.8 64.5 64.9 64.9 63.4 60.0 55.4 49.5 45.3 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 11 13 19 24 29 28 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 60 48 40 31 22 20 19 17 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -15. -21. -28. -35. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -26. -30. -34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 4. 4. 6. 0. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. -2. -7. -16. -26. -41. -58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/18/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 22( 35) 26( 52) 27( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 62( 86) 4( 87) 0( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)