* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/18/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 48 47 43 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 51 48 47 43 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 52 51 50 47 42 36 30 24 21 20 20 SHEAR (KT) 34 34 29 29 29 27 46 54 55 64 44 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -2 2 -1 -2 8 2 6 9 2 11 10 4 SHEAR DIR 351 355 348 322 318 285 299 302 296 308 317 141 107 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.3 26.8 26.0 25.3 24.2 22.9 20.0 18.9 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 150 151 142 123 114 108 100 93 81 77 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 137 137 126 106 98 92 87 82 73 70 68 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -49.2 -49.5 -49.0 -47.3 -46.0 -44.0 -45.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 58 63 66 64 53 48 49 43 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 17 19 18 22 20 17 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -33 -49 -52 -64 -90 -89 -99 -120 96 226 289 294 200 MB DIV -8 -5 14 38 44 19 29 -33 -34 38 31 37 5 LAND (KM) 1940 1891 1859 1906 1758 1471 1271 1147 1046 955 927 1042 1280 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.8 27.9 29.4 30.9 33.5 35.5 37.1 38.9 41.3 44.3 46.6 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.7 50.8 51.4 52.0 51.7 50.0 48.0 45.9 43.8 41.7 39.1 35.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 14 12 12 12 13 16 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 34 23 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -21. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -6. -3. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -13. -17. -21. -34. -47. -60. -68. -70. -76. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/18/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)