* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KARL AL132010 09/18/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 49 49 50 55 59 63 68 73 74 78 78 V (KT) LAND 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 16 12 17 16 13 18 17 20 23 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 0 3 0 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 65 86 98 79 72 59 43 37 44 37 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 150 150 147 143 142 141 141 142 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 140 139 139 135 128 125 122 123 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -50.9 -51.9 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 10 7 10 8 11 8 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 85 85 82 83 85 87 86 82 80 79 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 88 82 76 77 83 64 65 54 70 62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 68 65 56 70 70 79 63 62 34 52 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -120 -180 -239 -201 -163 -88 -33 -44 -55 -44 -66 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.5 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.7 98.3 99.1 99.8 101.3 102.5 102.4 102.1 102.4 102.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -19. -16. -11. -5. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -11. -11. -10. -5. -1. 3. 8. 13. 14. 18. 18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132010 KARL 09/18/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -45.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132010 KARL 09/18/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132010 KARL 09/18/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)