* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/18/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 98 100 101 99 94 89 81 71 59 45 33 V (KT) LAND 95 97 98 100 101 99 94 89 81 71 59 45 33 V (KT) LGE mod 95 96 96 96 96 94 89 81 73 64 52 45 41 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 16 18 15 24 26 24 39 49 43 45 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -2 0 0 1 4 14 10 7 6 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 216 185 159 157 174 180 214 205 219 216 193 188 197 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.4 22.2 13.9 14.8 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 147 145 145 145 139 131 122 95 74 70 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 133 129 127 128 127 120 114 110 90 71 66 63 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.4 -48.3 -48.3 -48.3 -47.4 -47.3 -46.7 -46.5 -46.3 -47.8 -48.1 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 51 52 58 56 52 43 35 49 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 42 42 41 45 46 46 47 49 49 48 45 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 160 163 177 168 158 169 144 164 181 227 283 201 163 200 MB DIV 33 62 128 94 51 114 94 90 90 90 61 55 29 LAND (KM) 787 838 898 966 1038 1184 1137 989 838 544 493 822 929 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.8 30.3 32.8 34.9 37.6 41.8 47.9 51.5 53.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.1 63.7 64.3 64.8 64.8 64.0 62.5 59.3 53.8 46.2 42.4 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 13 12 15 24 36 31 15 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 42 32 24 18 25 20 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -27. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -14. -24. -36. -50. -62. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/18/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 23( 50) 21( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 75 62( 91) 11( 92) 0( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)