* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/18/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 46 44 41 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 46 44 41 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 49 48 46 42 38 32 25 21 18 18 20 SHEAR (KT) 37 32 27 35 32 35 45 58 57 40 22 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 0 -3 2 7 8 6 11 5 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 354 346 319 308 308 296 301 306 306 286 296 253 216 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.5 26.4 25.7 24.8 23.7 22.8 21.1 20.0 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 150 143 131 118 112 104 97 92 84 80 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 138 135 126 114 101 96 89 84 80 75 72 71 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -49.2 -49.2 -47.5 -46.9 -46.5 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 55 59 62 67 58 46 44 47 54 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 17 19 18 21 20 20 15 29 45 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -60 -55 -75 -98 -89 -100 -111 -125 78 183 150 136 200 MB DIV -3 15 43 47 46 66 -20 -65 -33 19 44 17 14 LAND (KM) 1889 1887 1905 1759 1602 1375 1183 1075 1038 1077 1213 1393 1616 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.1 29.5 30.9 32.3 34.4 36.4 38.1 39.7 41.3 42.7 44.0 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.6 51.5 51.8 52.1 51.3 49.5 47.1 44.6 41.9 38.8 35.6 32.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 14 12 11 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 23 16 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -24. -24. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -5. 5. 17. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -23. -35. -50. -48. -39. -46. -52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/18/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)