* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/18/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 99 101 102 99 95 87 78 66 53 37 26 V (KT) LAND 95 96 99 101 102 99 95 87 78 66 53 37 26 V (KT) LGE mod 95 95 96 96 95 94 89 81 71 56 47 42 39 SHEAR (KT) 5 11 14 11 16 27 19 38 44 42 45 41 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 2 0 -1 2 16 7 5 0 -5 1 2 SHEAR DIR 203 159 164 177 201 183 211 213 226 210 220 224 225 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.0 24.6 15.9 15.5 14.6 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 146 145 146 145 138 129 108 76 73 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 128 127 127 126 121 118 100 73 69 63 61 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -48.1 -48.3 -48.4 -48.3 -47.7 -46.6 -46.4 -46.4 -46.6 -49.0 -49.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 47 50 52 52 58 52 44 40 41 48 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 44 48 47 48 49 50 49 48 45 40 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 167 179 177 164 171 168 182 174 229 232 168 24 65 200 MB DIV 53 128 105 74 77 34 135 73 73 80 30 30 38 LAND (KM) 840 894 956 1048 1122 1132 1090 878 666 324 714 988 1060 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.9 28.8 31.1 33.4 36.5 40.8 45.2 49.6 51.5 51.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 63.9 64.5 64.8 65.1 64.9 63.8 60.7 55.5 49.5 43.3 39.9 38.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 12 16 25 30 31 22 8 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 32 23 18 19 20 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -24. -33. -39. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 4. 0. -8. -17. -29. -42. -58. -69. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/18/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 24( 50) 21( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 43 2( 44) 2( 45) 0( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)