* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/18/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 39 38 35 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 39 38 35 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 37 35 33 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 30 25 31 27 28 38 54 57 65 67 39 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 5 7 8 3 9 7 6 8 3 2 SHEAR DIR 351 323 314 305 303 305 312 312 312 321 316 272 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.5 24.5 23.3 21.6 20.0 19.1 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 142 131 123 115 110 103 95 86 80 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 125 114 105 99 95 88 82 76 72 70 70 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -49.7 -49.9 -49.4 -48.5 -47.5 -46.6 -47.7 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 52 57 60 63 50 42 41 44 52 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 18 20 17 19 20 18 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -71 -84 -100 -104 -97 -99 -126 -109 149 200 178 169 200 MB DIV 16 30 52 38 43 -11 -54 -98 12 69 48 31 38 LAND (KM) 1893 1907 1748 1604 1460 1291 1197 1131 1076 1120 1258 1414 1630 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.6 31.0 32.3 33.6 35.3 36.8 38.5 40.6 42.4 43.9 45.4 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 51.2 51.7 51.7 51.7 50.1 47.4 44.9 42.7 40.3 37.5 34.6 31.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 17 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 16 CX,CY: -9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -18. -24. -27. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -7. -10. -15. -24. -39. -57. -69. -74. -75. -76. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/18/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)