* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/18/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 46 50 53 50 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 46 50 53 50 47 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 46 48 50 51 50 48 46 SHEAR (KT) 12 6 6 2 4 12 10 10 6 17 20 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 2 6 5 7 3 0 SHEAR DIR 87 115 116 250 213 217 244 266 294 317 319 278 287 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 141 143 139 132 125 120 117 115 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 133 136 137 131 121 114 108 104 101 98 99 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 65 67 64 62 61 59 53 57 57 56 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 56 64 68 64 63 62 46 49 47 38 23 21 8 200 MB DIV 1 1 4 4 20 22 3 -9 5 -10 -10 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 1017 1076 1138 1208 1280 1396 1468 1505 1531 1482 1434 1419 1438 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.6 18.5 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 27.4 28.0 28.7 29.4 30.5 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.1 30.7 30.6 30.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 15 18 18 18 14 10 8 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 25. 22. 18. 14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/18/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/18/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)