* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/18/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 87 87 86 83 75 71 58 43 31 19 V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 87 87 86 83 75 71 58 43 31 19 V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 83 83 84 83 79 72 62 50 45 45 45 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 18 21 26 33 42 55 29 16 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 1 -1 3 8 15 7 0 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 165 150 190 194 177 196 197 212 222 192 202 200 170 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.5 26.2 19.9 15.4 16.7 15.4 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 145 144 141 133 121 85 74 74 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 126 126 126 123 118 110 79 71 69 65 64 200 MB T (C) -48.1 -48.6 -48.3 -48.5 -46.9 -46.7 -46.2 -46.4 -45.1 -44.6 -45.8 -45.9 -46.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 48 47 51 54 51 50 41 34 47 61 64 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 46 47 47 49 50 50 53 51 55 47 36 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR 174 168 164 178 188 181 202 235 293 314 272 238 230 200 MB DIV 115 104 87 99 98 78 129 55 74 69 54 62 42 LAND (KM) 933 1011 1072 1167 1143 1057 879 711 445 486 842 1123 1292 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.3 30.3 32.8 35.8 39.0 42.7 46.1 49.3 50.5 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.6 65.1 65.2 65.3 64.9 63.1 59.0 52.8 46.8 41.5 37.7 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 14 19 27 28 25 19 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 18 18 21 24 27 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -19. -27. -32. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -28. -32. -36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. 5. -1. -9. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -10. -14. -27. -42. -54. -66. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/18/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/18/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 10( 26) 10( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 1( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)