* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/18/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 39 38 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 39 38 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 37 35 31 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 27 25 28 29 37 43 52 54 52 27 8 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 8 9 10 15 6 5 13 14 9 5 12 SHEAR DIR 325 315 300 298 299 297 312 315 322 323 339 135 137 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.4 25.7 25.0 23.9 22.5 20.5 19.3 18.7 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 131 124 118 112 106 98 91 82 78 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 124 113 107 101 95 91 85 79 73 71 70 69 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -49.8 -49.2 -49.0 -47.8 -46.2 -45.3 -47.1 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 61 65 57 44 35 36 45 51 47 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 17 21 19 17 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -89 -103 -104 -111 -118 -118 -126 62 175 194 185 153 200 MB DIV 32 65 40 31 33 -34 -62 -44 44 47 13 28 6 LAND (KM) 1883 1743 1602 1478 1355 1202 1130 1086 1071 1166 1341 1538 1432 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.1 32.3 33.5 34.6 36.3 37.7 39.4 41.6 43.4 44.9 46.3 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 51.7 52.0 51.6 51.1 49.1 46.7 44.2 41.7 39.0 35.8 32.6 28.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 17 CX,CY: -7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -16. -19. -18. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -15. -28. -45. -61. -68. -71. -72. -74. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/18/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/18/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)