* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/18/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 58 61 61 59 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 58 61 61 59 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 55 58 59 60 60 61 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 3 2 5 10 12 5 8 13 10 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 7 7 4 3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 106 98 91 151 199 222 251 336 296 329 278 271 295 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 144 144 144 138 129 123 118 116 117 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 138 137 129 119 111 105 102 104 106 106 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 63 63 64 67 63 60 58 61 56 50 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 84 85 79 75 71 65 53 53 54 41 29 26 22 200 MB DIV 12 12 15 25 32 17 -21 13 -7 -3 -10 -9 11 LAND (KM) 1178 1238 1301 1353 1408 1493 1547 1583 1584 1576 1603 1714 1844 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.8 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.1 30.6 31.4 31.8 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.3 33.4 34.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 18 20 22 15 11 7 6 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 33. 36. 36. 34. 31. 28. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/18/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/18/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)